Weekly Market Commentary

October 26, 2025

Darren Leavitt

CFA®

US financial markets forged another set of all-time highs as investors assessed a solid week of third-quarter earnings results and were encouraged by progress on trade negotiations with China. A benign inflation print on Friday also solidified the prospects of a 25-basis-point cut by the Fed at its upcoming October meeting.

29% of the S&P 500 have reported third-quarter earnings, and the results on both the top and bottom lines have beaten expectations. According to FactSet, 87% of companies that have reported have beaten EPS estimates, while 83% have beaten revenue estimates. Earnings per share growth has come in at 9.2%, while revenue has grown at 7%

Ultimately, earnings drive the markets, and so far, earnings have been great, so we should expect them to be a tailwind in the current market environment. 175 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings in the coming week. The table has also been set for President Trump and President Xi to find common ground on trade. Reports suggest that both sides have agreed there will be no increase in tariffs after the two leaders meet on October 30th. Increased tensions with Russia follow Trump’s statement that a meeting with Putin in Hungary would likely yield no results. However, investors’ focus will be on Trump’s visit to Asia this week and the trade-related headlines.

The S&P 500 gained 1.9%, the Dow rose 2.2%, the NASDAQ increased 2.3%, and the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 advanced 2.5%. The US yield curve saw shorter tenured paper sell off slightly, while the long end of the curve has small gains. The 2-year yield increased by two basis points to 3.48%, while the 10-year yield fell by one basis point to 4%. Oil prices rallied on Trump’s announced sanctions on several Russian energy companies. WTI increased by 7.6% or $4.36 to close the week at $61.47 a barrel. Gold prices fell by $75.40 to $4,137.30 per ounce. Copper prices increased by $0.15 to $5.12 per Lb. Bitcoin’s price rose by 5% over the week and is currently trading at 113.500.

The economic calendar was quiet again, but we did receive the Consumer Price Index on Friday. The report showed headline CPI increasing by 0.3% versus an estimate of 0.4% in September. The Core figure that excludes food and energy rose by 0.2%, below the 0.3% expectation. On a year-over-year basis, the headline number increased by 3%, up from 2.9% reported in August. The Core figure over the same time frame increased by 3%, down from 3.1% reported in August. The final reading of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index showed a decline from the prior month to 53.6 on continued worries about high inflation.

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